What does trade look like beyond the BACI lag?
CEPII BACI reconciles reporter and partner filings into a clean bilateral panel, but that reconciliation imposes a roughly two-year publication lag: as of this page’s last rebuild the newest BACI year is 2024. UN Comtrade publishes monthly reporter-side filings with a two-to-three-month lag, so monthly Comtrade is the only near-real-time window on global trade. This page uses 30 of the largest reporters (partner = World, HS6) to sketch what has happened since BACI went cold.
Note. Last update: 2025-12. Source: UN Comtrade v1 API, HS classification, partnerCode = 0 (World). This page complements — it does not replace — BACI: Comtrade is reporter-side and unreconciled (mirror discrepancies between importer and exporter filings are unresolved), while BACI applies the Gaulier-Zignago (2010) harmonisation. When the two disagree at the country level, that gap is a measurement artefact, not a trade fact.
World monthly trade, last 24 months through 2025-12
cite
@misc{hossen_2026_figure-1,
author = {Md Deluair Hossen},
title = {World monthly trade, last 24 months through 2025-12},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {TradeWeave Workbench},
url = {https://tradeweave.org},
note = {Figure: Figure 1}
}show query
SELECT period,
SUM(CASE WHEN flowCode = 'X' THEN primaryValue END) AS exports_usd,
SUM(CASE WHEN flowCode = 'M' THEN primaryValue END) AS imports_usd
FROM 'data/parquet/comtrade_monthly.parquet'
WHERE partnerCode = 0
GROUP BY period
ORDER BY period DESC
LIMIT 24;Who is accelerating, who is decelerating
Indexing each reporter’s monthly exports to a value of 100 at the same month one year ago strips out level differences and makes relative momentum readable. Lines above 100 are reporters exporting more (in current USD) than a year earlier; lines below 100 are in retreat. This is the same normalisation Baldwin & Freeman (2022) recommend for near-real-time trade monitoring during shocks, because it de-emphasises stable structural differences.
Top-10 reporters, monthly exports indexed to 2024-12 = 100
Latest month snapshot
A cross-sectional bar chart of total reported exports for the most recent month we have. Coverage is uneven: some reporters lag by three months, some by one; where a reporter has not yet filed for 2025-12 its bar is simply missing. This is expected — one of the signals in the snapshot is which reporters file quickly.
Reporter exports in 2025-10, partner = World
cite
@misc{hossen_2026_figure-3,
author = {Md Deluair Hossen},
title = {Reporter exports in 2025-10, partner = World},
year = {2026},
howpublished = {TradeWeave Workbench},
url = {https://tradeweave.org},
note = {Figure: Figure 3}
}Legitimacy check: do BACI and Comtrade agree?
BACI is derived from the same Comtrade raw filings but applies a reconciliation algorithm (Gaulier & Zignago, 2010) that reweights importer and exporter reports by reliability and converts CIF values to FOB. A log-log scatter of annualised Comtrade exports (2023) against BACI exports for the same year-country lets us see the gap. Points on the 45-degree line mean the two sources agree; points above the line mean Comtrade reports higher exports than BACI finally settled on (typically because the reporter over-states re-exports or applies the CIF-FOB adjustment differently).
BACI 2023 exports vs Comtrade 2023 annualised, by reporter
Who is growing fastest, right now
Monthly year-on-year growth rates strip out level differences and let us rank reporters on momentum alone. The same snapshot month as Figure 3 is used for the numerator; the denominator is each reporter’s exports exactly twelve months earlier. Positive bars are reporters growing in current USD year-on-year; negative bars are in retreat. The median across the sample is a proxy for the global pulse without the base-effect distortion that raw level charts carry.
Year-on-year export growth in 2025-10, top-15 reporters
Citations
- Baldwin, R., & Freeman, R. (2022). Risks and global supply chains: what we know and what we need to know. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 153-180.
- CEPII (2024). BACI: International Trade Database at the Product-Level (1994-2024 release). Gaulier, G., & Zignago, S. (2010). CEPII Working Paper 2010-23.
- United Nations Statistics Division (2024). UN Comtrade Database — Trade Data API v1.
https://uncomtrade.org.
Bridging BACI’s two-year lag with Comtrade monthly data gives us a picture accurate to roughly the last quarter. The page should be read as a lead indicator: when the monthly reporter-side series start moving, BACI will eventually follow — but the reconciliation can change the level by a few percent per country, and occasionally the sign of a bilateral flow. For research that requires reconciled bilateral data, wait for BACI; for current awareness, read this page.