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Fetching Comtrade flows, FRED prices, and BACI structure.
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Fetching Comtrade flows, FRED prices, and BACI structure.
Quarterly sector deep dives. Each issue takes one HS-defined sector, reads the latest complete calendar year of CEPII BACI flows, and writes a short policy-aware read of where trade is going, who is gaining share, and how concentrated the supply base is. The index below lists the 12 sectors we monitor; 12 have a published issue right now.
Country-level trade totals hide the mechanism. A semiconductor export control, a grain-corridor closure, a CBAM rule, or a Chinese EV tariff lands on one HS chapter at a time, and the second-order effects travel along the value-added chain that chapter sits in. Koopman, Wang & Wei (2014, American Economic Review 104(2), 459-494) show that gross bilateral exports double-count intermediates and that the policy-relevant object is the value-added decomposition at the sector level. These monitors are the gross-flow half of that GVC lens: the first diagnostic, the place where tariff and sanction shocks show up before the KWW accounting catches them up.
Every monitor issue walks the same six-section structure: key findings (bullet summary), market overview (world total, year-over-year change, concentration), trade flow analysis (top exporters, top importers, estimated bilateral corridors, concentration map), structural read (HHI and what it implies), policy context (tariffs, sanctions, industrial-policy responses), and risks / watchlist. Values are CEPII BACI in thousands USD (multiplied by 1,000 for display), annual calendar years. ISO3 codes are upper-cased and deduplicated against the countries.parquet map before any join. Trade totals and country values trace to Parquet SELECTs; bilateral corridor arcs are model-based estimates and are labeled as such.
One row per sector. Linked rows route to the latest published issue; plain rows are scoped but not yet released. Takeaways are the one-sentence 'so what' drawn from the full report; they are headlines, not forecasts.
World trade +10.7% YoY; S19 leads exports at 23.7%.
World trade -3.3% YoY; BRA leads exports at 12.8%.
World trade +4.8% YoY; DEU leads exports at 12.7%.
World trade -2.5% YoY; DEU leads exports at 17.4%.
World trade -7.5% YoY; CHN leads exports at 15.8%.
World trade -12.3% YoY; USA leads exports at 14.0%.
World trade -3.0% YoY; SAU leads exports at 14.3%.
World trade -12.8% YoY; AUS leads exports at 21.6%.
World trade +0.4% YoY; CHN leads exports at 29.0%.
World trade -7.9% YoY; RUS leads exports at 15.7%.
World trade -20.2% YoY; CHN leads exports at 45.8%.
World trade -16.0% YoY; RUS leads exports at 16.1%.
This index is the navigation layer; the analytical weight lives in the per-sector issues. Read the monitor as a briefing, not as a model: each issue reads one calendar year of reconciled BACI data against the prior year's world total. For long-horizon structural views (1995-2024, reconciled), use the world, rankings and complexity pages; for near-real-time cross-sector moves without sector detail, the monthly page is the right entry point.