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Fetching Comtrade flows, FRED prices, and BACI structure.
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Fetching Comtrade flows, FRED prices, and BACI structure.
Quarterly sector deep dives. Each issue takes one HS-defined sector, pulls reporter-side Comtrade flows for the latest complete quarter, layers FRED price series and CEPII BACI structure, and writes a short policy-aware read of where trade is going, who is gaining share, and what the price tape is saying. The index below lists the 12 sectors we monitor; 12 have a published issue right now.
Country-level trade totals hide the mechanism. A semiconductor export control, a grain-corridor closure, a CBAM rule, or a Chinese EV tariff lands on one HS chapter at a time, and the second-order effects travel along the value-added chain that chapter sits in. Koopman, Wang & Wei (2014, American Economic Review 104(2), 459-494) show that gross bilateral exports double-count intermediates and that the policy-relevant object is the value-added decomposition at the sector level. These monitors are the gross-flow half of that GVC lens: the first diagnostic, the place where tariff and sanction shocks show up before the KWW accounting catches them up.
Every monitor issue walks the same six-section structure: key findings (bullet summary), market overview (latest price / volume print against CEPII BACI history), trade flow analysis (top exporters, top importers, bilateral corridors, concentration map), structural read (HHI, RCA, unit-value), policy context (tariffs, sanctions, industrial-policy responses), and risks / watchlist. Values are UN Comtrade reporter-side in current USD (not scaled), BACI in thousands USD (multiplied by 1,000 for display), prices in USD or index as labeled. ISO3 codes are upper-cased and deduplicated against the countries.parquet map before any join. Every number traces back to either a Parquet SELECT or a Comtrade v1 API call; no modelling, no back-fill.
One row per sector. Linked rows route to the latest published issue; plain rows are scoped but not yet released. Takeaways are the one-sentence 'so what' drawn from the full report; they are headlines, not forecasts.
World trade +9.7% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -11.4% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -0.1% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -6.5% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -21.5% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -20.1% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -7.4% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -13.4% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -11.2% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -22.4% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -22.0% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
World trade -18.6% YoY, top exporter share concentrated.
This index is the navigation layer; the analytical weight lives in the per-sector issues. Read the monitor as a briefing, not as a model: each issue is one quarter of reporter-side data, with seasonality intact and partial filings flagged. For long-horizon structural views (1995-2024, reconciled), use the world, rankings and complexity pages; for near-real-time cross-sector moves without sector detail, the monthly page is the right entry point.