Loading chart...
Predict bilateral trade flows using an ensemble of Holt's linear trend method, linear regression, and weighted moving average. Forecasts are generated from historical BACI trade data.
Source: BACI 202601 (CEPII), HS96, 1996-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01)
Methodology: Ensemble of Holt's linear trend method (double exponential smoothing), OLS linear regression, and weighted moving average. Model weights determined by leave-last-out cross-validation MSE; band from CV residual error.