Econometric analysis of trade shocks using Difference-in-Differences, event study, and synthetic control methods
Source: BACI International Trade Database (CEPII), 1996-2024 | World Bank Development Indicators
Methodology: Event study, Difference-in-Differences, and Synthetic Control methods applied to country-level trade panel data. Event study and DiD use log differences when all selected observations are positive and level differences otherwise. Their Welch intervals assume independent country-level changes and require at least two contributing countries per group. Event-study joint pretrend inference is unavailable. Synthetic control uses positive log outcomes and simplex-constrained donor weights; incomplete or nonpositive series are withheld. Its geometric combination and fit ratios do not establish causality.