Econometric analysis of trade shocks using Difference-in-Differences, event study, and synthetic control methods
2008 Global Financial Crisis (t = 2009): World merchandise trade fell 12% in real terms in 2009 (WTO 2010 International Trade Statistics, Table A1a), the largest single-year contraction since 1945. Treated set: advanced economies whose 2009 export volume contraction exceeded the world average by Eurostat / WTO source tables; control set: emerging economies whose 2009 export shock was smaller per the same tables.
Methodology: Event study, Difference-in-Differences, and Synthetic Control methods applied to country-level trade panel data. Log transformation used for level outcomes. Standard errors are unpooled (event study) or clustered at country level (DiD). Synthetic control uses projected gradient descent with simplex constraint (Abadie et al. 2010).