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Related analyses

Bilateral
country pair flow analysis
Migration & Trade
diaspora gravity networks
Trade Costs
distance, freight gravity terms
Forecast
flow predictions
Policy Sim
counterfactual flow simulation

Sources:BACI/CEPII·WITS/TRAINS·World Bank·ESCAP·FRED·FAOSTAT

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Trade Potential & Determinants

Gravity model analysis: what drives bilateral trade and where is untapped potential?

19962020

Bilateral Determinants

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Pair Trade Summary

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Trade Potential for USA

Partners trading more (or less) than the gravity model predicts, positive residuals indicate unexpectedly strong trade ties

Gravity Scatter: Distance vs Trade

Top 2,000 bilateral flows; log scales reveal the gravity relationship

FTA
Colonial ties
FTA + Colonial
No FTA / No colonial

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Source: CEPII Gravity database merged with BACI (HS92), 1996-2020 | GeoDist (CEPII) for bilateral distance and colonial ties

Methodology: Gravity model of trade following Anderson & van Wincoop (2003). Estimated via OLS on log-linearized trade flows (Tinbergen, 1962).