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Where world trade is concentrated, who depends on whom, and what happens when a link breaks. Each layer below answers one question, from product-level sourcing concentration to live chokepoint stress, built on BACI bilateral flows, CEPII GeoDep, OECD TiVA, and IMF PortWatch.
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Which products are concentrated, and which countries have market power?
BACI HS6, CEPII GeoDep
How concentrated is sourcing for one product, and who are the alternatives?
BACI HS6, tariffs
What does a country import to make what it exports, and who controls those inputs?
BACI bilateral, OECD TiVA
How many of a country’s imports are critical, single-source, or dominated by one supplier?
CEPII GeoDep
How much trade routes through Suez, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama, and what closure would cost.
BACI bilateral, UNCTAD/EIA transit shares
Which chokepoints are under stress right now?
IMF PortWatch daily transits
Where are the ports, lanes, and chokepoints of seaborne trade?
IMF PortWatch
If a dominant supplier halts, which alternatives are actually viable?
Conditional-logit substitution model, validated on Russia 2022
What would realigning suppliers toward allies cost, product by product?
BACI bilateral, UN voting blocs, tariffs
If a chokepoint closes or a supplier halts, whose trade is exposed?
BACI bilateral exposure accounting
How much of world trade is value added made elsewhere?
OECD TiVA
Who controls the minerals of the energy transition?
BACI HS6, World Bank Pink Sheet
Who feeds themselves, and who depends on trade for food?
FAOSTAT, BACI
What are energy, materials, and freight costs doing to each industry?
World Bank Pink Sheet, FRED
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Source: BACI 202501 (CEPII), HS92, 1995-2024 (retrieved 2026-04-28) | CEPII GeoDep geoeconomic dependence database | IMF PortWatch Daily Chokepoints (portwatch.imf.org), 2019-present | NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (retrieved 2026-07-28)
Methodology: Hub for the supply chain platform. Chokepoint stress compares 7-day rolling transits with a 90-day baseline. GVC participation proxied by parts and components share of total trade.