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A scenario-driven tariff simulator: the direct partial-equilibrium effect is computed under a CES-Armington import demand with substitution elasticity sigma = 4(Saito 2004 IMF WP 04/36 on HS2 aggregates; Broda & Weinstein 2006 QJEreport a lower median near 3; policy simulations routinely use 3 to 5). Upstream pass-through is decomposed using OECD TiVA foreign value-added intensity (Koopman, Wang & Wei 2014), and downstream consumer impact is allocated across destination activities by TiVA FVA intensity weighted by export share. Amiti, Redding & Weinstein (2019 JEP) document near-complete pass-through of the 2018 US tariffs onto domestic prices, which justifies treating the USA importer and consumer as the primary incidence bearers in the diagrams below.
With a fixed world price of 1, the landed price changes from 1.00 to 1.25. The diagram shows final tariff revenue and a trapezoid approximation to the change in consumer surplus. Its chord triangle and the separately reported local-slope deadweight approximation differ for finite changes along curved demand. These areas are not three additive components of welfare.
-- direct PE math (TypeScript, not SQL). Data inputs: SELECT SUM(export_value)*1000 FROM 'country_year_product_ext/year=2024/*.parquet' WHERE product_code='854231' AND revision='HS07' AND c.iso3='CHN'; SELECT AVG(simple_avg) FROM 'pref_tariff_hs6/**/*.parquet' WHERE hs6='854231' AND reporter_code=840 AND year=NULL;
This allocation multiplies the baseline tariff-change bill by CHN's economy-wide foreign-value-added share and bilateral import shares. It does not identify this product's input suppliers, a Leontief decomposition or who bears the tariff. These allocation weights do not change the fixed-world-price model. The TiVA share is 15.8% (2020).
Where matched data exist, this allocation weights activities by their foreign-value-added shares and shares of exports (2020). It does not observe which activities use HS 854231 or estimate their tariff incidence.
These bars show the absolute magnitude of the signed HS6 elasticity estimates stored for HS6 products in chapter 85. The twelve largest magnitudes between 0.5 and 50 are shown. They are descriptive product comparisons, not the scenario's fixed sigma of 4or a multi-sector welfare calculation. Tariff labels are unweighted means of available partner-specific schedules for USA in 2023, not MFN-only rates. Missing tariff matches remain unavailable.
These are observed global exports in 2024, excluding China. Export value does not measure spare capacity, product compatibility, destination access or the cost of switching suppliers. These bars do not change the scenario elasticity or welfare calculation.
This comparison applies a +10 percentage-point tariff change to the focal flow under the same fixed-world-price demand model. Revenue is measured relative to the existing tariff, not relative to zero. Consumer surplus uses a trapezoid approximation. Retail pass-through does not identify foreign producer incidence or a terms-of-trade gain; no such gain is estimated here.
The direct demand scenario uses sigma = 4. The values 2, 4, 6 and 8 below are sensitivity assumptions, not confidence bounds or product-specific estimates. At this scenario's bilateral flow proxy of $3.65B and a tariff change from 0.0% to 25.0%, we recompute the import-volume contraction, the Harberger deadweight triangle, and tariff revenue under sigma ∈ {2, 4, 6, 8} to show the elasticity-choice footprint. DWL scales roughly linearly in sigma; the volume contraction scales more steeply because sigma enters as an exponent. For a tariff increase, revenue is monotone decreasing in sigma: higher sigma shrinks Q1 faster, which shrinks the revenue rectangle even though t1 is held fixed.
A retaliation calculation needs a supported reverse product flow, its baseline tariff and a specified policy response. The forward-flow proxy on this page does not provide those inputs. We therefore withhold reverse-flow losses and combined welfare estimates. Multiplying the forward flow by a fixed coverage share would not measure reverse trade. The partial-equilibrium calculations above do not solve strategic best responses, an optimal tariff or a Nash equilibrium, and imply no general doubling of welfare losses.
?origin=CHN&destination=USA&hs=854231&rate=25. ISO3 codes are uppercased server-side; HS6 must be six digits.SELECT te.hs6, ABS(te.sigma) AS elasticity_magnitude, AVG(pt.simple_avg) AS schedule_mean FROM 'data/parquet/trade_elasticity.parquet' te LEFT JOIN 'data/parquet/pref_tariff_hs6/**/*.parquet' pt ON pt.hs6 = te.hs6 AND pt.reporter_code = 840 AND pt.year = 2023 WHERE SUBSTR(te.hs6,1,2) = '85' AND ABS(te.sigma) BETWEEN 0.5 AND 50 GROUP BY te.hs6, te.sigma ORDER BY ABS(te.sigma) DESC, te.hs6 LIMIT 12;
SELECT c.iso3, SUM(cyp.export_value)*1000 AS world_export_usd
FROM 'country_year_product_ext/year=2024/*.parquet' cyp
JOIN 'countries.parquet' c ON c.code = cyp.country_code
WHERE cyp.product_code = '854231' AND revision = 'HS07'
AND cyp.export_value > 0
AND regexp_matches(c.iso3, '^[A-Z0-9]{3}$')
GROUP BY c.iso3
ORDER BY world_export_usd DESC LIMIT 12;