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Armington CES partial-equilibrium model. Simulate bilateral tariff policy changes and quantify effects on trade flows, prices, and welfare. Welfare uses a first-order (Harberger) approximation, most reliable for moderate tariff changes. Pick a preset scenario or build your own below.
Source: BACI International Trade Database (CEPII), HS92, 1995-2024
Methodology: Armington (1969) CES partial-equilibrium model. Substitution elasticities (sigma) at HS6 level from Soderbery (2018), Trade Elasticities, Heterogeneity, and Optimal Tariffs, Journal of International Economics 114; default sigma = 4.0 where no estimate exists. Welfare via first-order Harberger approximation (most reliable for moderate tariff changes). Trade diversion detected via bilateral flow comparison.