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How migrant stocks predict bilateral trade. 9,340 corridors, 233 origin countries. Source: UN DESA IMS 2024 (CC BY 3.0 IGO); World Bank remittances (CC BY 4.0).
Each dot is a destination country. Larger bubble = more migrants.
Trade values: BACI 202501 (CEPII, retrieved 2026-04-28), thousands USD. Migrant stock: UN DESA IMS 2024, persons. Fit line: bivariate OLS on log-log scale.
Corridors where India has a large diaspora but trade falls below the migration-augmented gravity fit (negative residual). Bar length = gap magnitude. Filtered to corridors with 1,000+ migrants and USD 100K+ trade.
Top corridors by remittance flows relative to bilateral goods trade. Ratio > 1: remittance channel exceeds goods-trade channel for that corridor.
Source: UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2024 (bilateral), CC BY 3.0 IGO (retrieved 2026-05-28) | World Bank, Personal Remittances Received (BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT), CC BY 4.0 (retrieved 2026-05-28) | BACI 202501 (CEPII), HS92, 1995-2024 (retrieved 2026-04-28)
Methodology: Migrant stocks: UN DESA IMS 2024 bilateral matrix, decadal snapshots 1990-2024. Years between snapshots use the nearest preceding census round (disclosed per query). Bilateral remittances: Ratha-Shaw (2007) allocation of country-level WB totals using migrant-stock corridor shares as weights. These are estimates, not directly measured flows. Migration-trade elasticity: bivariate OLS of ln(trade) on ln(migrant stock) across all corridors with 100+ migrants and positive BACI trade in the selected year.