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Select a disruption scenario: close a maritime chokepoint or halt exports from a major supplier country. The model computes which importers lose the most critical import value, ranked by exposed dependency basket.
This is a structural counterfactual, not a price or general-equilibrium model. It traces which dependent flows (CEPII GeoDep, 2022 vintage) route through the chosen chokepoint or originate from the chosen supplier. It does not model price adjustment, substitution, or second-round effects.
Strait of Hormuz carries ~21% of global seaborne oil. Flows exposed: all dependent imports whose standard sea route from supplier to importer transits this passage.