How many jobs ride on exports, how skilled are they, and what happens under a tariff shock. x-axis: export sophistication (goods ECI); y-axis: share of labor force with advanced education; bubble size: jobs embodied in exports; color: wage content (rose = low, green = high).
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Source: World Bank WDI (ILO-modeled employment and wage estimates), CC BY 4.0, retrieved 2026-05-28 | BACI 202501 (CEPII), HS92, 1995-2024, retrieved 2026-04-28 | UNSD HS2017-to-CPC21-to-ISIC Rev.4 correspondence (unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications)
Methodology: Jobs per $1M exports = industry headcount (WDI SL.TLF.TOTL.IN x SL.IND.EMPL.ZS/100) / manufacturing exports ($USD) x 1e6. Wage content index = WDI SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD (GDP per person employed, 2017 PPP$), normalized 0-1 (2nd-98th percentile). Skill intensity = WDI SL.TLF.ADVN.ZS (% labor force with advanced education). HS2-to-ISIC2 bridge: 96 of 97 HS chapters mapped via UNSD concordance. Shock slider: proportional reduction in export-embodied jobs; jobs-at-risk = export_jobs_k x (shock_pct/100).