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Observed transit deviation at the tracked global shipping passages, using IMF PortWatch daily vessel counts.
Source: IMF PortWatch Daily Chokepoints (portwatch.imf.org) | BACI 202601 (CEPII), HS96, bilateral trade flows (retrieved 2026-06-01)
Methodology: Deviation index = (7-day rolling vs 90-day prior baseline) / baseline. Trade-at-risk via bilateral BACI flows crossed with the routeChokepoints() sea-lane heuristic. Not a price or GE model. Route simplifications documented in src/lib/chokepoints.ts.