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MERCATOR
Mercator models which retained supplier records the largest import-share change after an incumbent loses share. It is trained on episodes with baseline years 2015–2020 and evaluated on selected Russia 2021–2022 episodes. Its 2022 application ranks candidates; it does not estimate how much displaced trade each would receive.
The 2022 dependency sample, ranked by concentration in the model's candidate probabilities.
The conditional-logit specification, selected Russia 2021–2022 backtest, coefficients and candidate-concentration index.
Model source: BACI HS92. Training, backtest and application samples differ from the site’s current HS96 trade panel. See the methodology page for their scope and limitations.