The Development Ladder

A directed, time-resolved product space. From 30 years of time-consistent BACI HS92 trade data, we estimate the probability that a country not yet exporting a product competitively enters it within five years, given how close the product sits to the country's existing export basket (density). Comparing three eras of window starts answers a fundamental question: do the export-basket positions that converted into new industries in the late 1990s still convert today?