Engagements

What an engagement looks like, with three illustrative walk-throughs.

Exemplar engagements, not past clients. Ask us to anchor your brief in your actual trade data.

Trade-exposure audit for a mid-sized exporter

Problem. A mid-sized manufacturer wants to know whether China-shock-2.0-style demand substitution is eroding its five largest export destinations. Management has rising concerns from the sales desk but no quantitative read on whether the erosion is sector-wide, firm-specific, or a China-driven share-shift.

Approach. Pull HS4 product-level bilateral flows from BACI for the firm’s export basket across the relevant partner set. Run Autor-Dorn-Hanson-style share-shift accounting to decompose destination-market growth into a China-competition channel, a sector-demand channel, and a residual. Benchmark the firm’s position against sector-level peers using RCA and market-share trajectories. Flag destinations where Chinese entrants have displaced more than a threshold share of incumbent exporters.

Deliverable. A 15-page tearsheet with rank tables, share-shift panels, and a risk-flag matrix by destination-HS4 cell. Linked TradeWeave pages used as live backdrops: country-scorecard, supply-chain, rankings.

Tariff scenario briefing for a trade-policy desk

Problem. A trade-policy desk needs partial-equilibrium and general-equilibrium impact estimates for a proposed 25% tariff on 10 HS6 lines, plus a read on third-country spillovers and downstream input-cost effects.

Approach. Partial equilibrium via the tariff-lab PE elasticity framework using Kee-Nicita-Olarreaga import-demand elasticities at the HS6 level. General equilibrium via Caliendo & Parro (2015) partial-sector implementation, run as a counterfactual against the BACI 2024 base year. Sensitivity panels over trade-cost assumptions (Novy inverted gravity, ESCAP bilateral costs, and uniform iceberg). Report treated vs. control trajectories for affected lines and flag second-round effects through input-output linkages.

Deliverable. A 25-page brief with headline PE+GE numbers, elasticity sensitivity bands, and a Parquet delivery of the treated-vs-control series for the desk’s own follow-up modelling. Linked pages: tariff-lab, tariff-scenarios, replications/caliendo-parro-2015.

CBAM readiness review for an industrial importer

Problem. An industrial importer is exposed to the upcoming EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on cement, steel, aluminium, fertiliser, and hydrogen. Procurement needs a concrete read on which upstream suppliers drive the firm’s CBAM liability, what the embedded-emissions surcharge looks like under current default values, and which alternative sources reduce exposure without disrupting operations.

Approach. Identify the top 15 upstream suppliers by volume within the CBAM HS scope using bilateral import records. Estimate embedded-emissions surcharge per supplier using EU CBAM default values and, where available, verified producer intensities. Map alternative sources by country of origin, carbon intensity, and logistical feasibility, with a stranded-assets overlay to flag suppliers whose CBAM exposure is likely to worsen under tightening default-value regimes.

Deliverable. A 20-page readiness review with a supplier-by-HS-line risk map, estimated per-tonne surcharge ranges, and a ranked alternative-sourcing shortlist. Linked pages: cbam, stranded-assets, critical-minerals.