How does Guinea-Bissau’s trade profile look? Level of exports and imports over thirty years, structural composition, partner concentration, and the position on the economic-complexity frontier.
Guinea-Bissau: merchandise exports and imports, 1995-2024
Exports grew from $107.7M in 1995 to $216.5M in 2024, a CAGR of 2.4%. The merchandise balance sits at -$313.5M, which is -145% of exports , a simple scale normalisation over the available BACI series. Note that exports are f.o.b. and imports c.i.f., so a meaningful portion of the gap reflects freight and insurance baked into the import valuation rather than a real shortfall in receipts (CIF/FOB spreads typically run 5-10% per UNCTAD/IMF BOP methodology, but country-specific values vary). The more conventional open-economy metric is the current- account balance as % of GDP, reported on the /macro/GNB page.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), f.o.b. exports and c.i.f. imports, summed across all reporters.Figure 1b
The structural change in what a country exports, from agriculture to manufactures to services, or between HS sections, is one of the most studied transitions in development economics (Imbs & Wacziarg 2003; Hausmann, Hwang & Rodrik 2007). The chart below shows the five largest HS sections of Guinea-Bissau’s exports in 2024, plotted back thirty years.
Figure 2
Top-5 HS sections of exports, 1995-2024
Figure 2b
Export basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $216.5M of $216.5M total
Figure 2c
Import basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $490.4M of $530.0M total
Who it sells to
Figure 3a
World map of export destinations, 2024
Figure 3b
Top 12 export destinations, 2024
Economic complexity
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), building on Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009, PNAS) and formalized as the eigenvalue (second-eigenvector) index in the Atlas of Economic Complexity, ranks countries by the productive knowledge embedded in their export basket. Countries that export many products, and whose products are also exported by few others, score high. ECI is predictive of subsequent income growth and structural transformation; see Hausmann et al. (2014, The Atlas of Economic Complexity, MIT Press) for the full methodology and the comparative country atlas. For a non-linear alternative that ranks fast-diversifying economies differently (China, for instance, sits far higher on fitness than on ECI), compare the Economic Fitness metric of Tacchella et al. (2012).
Figure 4a
Guinea-Bissau: ECI trajectory, 1995-2024
Current ECI: -0.83, ranked #178 of 226 economies in 2024. ECI is zero-centered; positive values mean above-median complexity.
Method: ECI = second eigenvector of the reflections matrix on the BACI RCA≥1 matrix, z-standardized (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014). Framework: Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009) “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity,” PNAS 106(26): 10570-10575, whose method of reflections is equivalent to the eigenvector form (Mealy, Farmer & Teytelboym 2019, Science Advances).Figure 4b
Export concentration (HHI) and product count, 1995-2024
2024 HHI = 0.875, equivalent to about 1.1 equally-sized product lines.Guinea-Bissau exports 281 distinct HS6 products. Rising HHI or falling effective-N indicates loss of diversification.
Revealed comparative advantage (Balassa 1965) says a country is specialised in a product when its share of that product’s world exports exceeds the country’s share of all world exports. A stronger version asks: which HS6 lines does the country lead the world in? The table below lists the ten largest export lines (by value) where Guinea-Bissau ranks in the world top-5 in 2024, restricted to products with at least US$10M of global trade so tiny niches don’t crowd out economically meaningful positions. This is the “niche leadership” view: products the country is not just diversified in, but competitive at the frontier.
Figure 5
Guinea-Bissau: top 10 HS6 lines with world top-5 rank, 2024
No data available for this chart.
Guinea-Bissau does not currently rank in the world top-5 exporters of any HS6 line above the US$10M threshold in 2024.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), HS6 exporter rankings, 2024. Restricted to products with ≥ US$10M world trade. Method: Balassa (1965) RCA taken to its rank-based extreme, top-5 world rank is a stringent specialisation test.
Peer countries by structural profile
Which economies share the closest structural profile to Guinea-Bissau? Each country is placed in a three-dimensional space of economic complexity (ECI), log GDP per capita, and log total exports, each standardised to zero mean and unit variance in 2024. The five nearest neighbours by Euclidean distance in that space are Guinea-Bissau’s closest structural peers, similar on productive-capability, income level, and scale of external trade. This is a trade-specific adaptation of the synthetic-control “donor pool” logic (Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller 2010).
Figure 6
Guinea-Bissau: five closest structural peers, 2024
Closest structural peer: Gambia (ECI -0.91, GDP-pc $871, exports $206.1M). Bar length encodes peer proximity in the standardised (ECI, log GDP-pc, log exports) space, shorter bars are closer structural matches. This is the peer set to benchmark trade-policy outcomes against, rather than regional or income-group aggregates. The metric matches on capability frontier and scale, not on sector mix, so countries with similar export composition but different ECI (e.g. higher-complexity apparel exporters) will not appear here.
Method: z-score each dimension (ECI, log GDP-pc, log total exports) across the universe of countries with all three observations in the latest year; rank by Euclidean distance. Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010) “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies,” JASA 105(490): 493-505.
Margins of export growth
Hummels & Klenow (2005, “The variety and quality of a nation’s exports,” American Economic Review95(3): 704-723) introduced the split of a country’s exports into an extensive margin (the set of goods it ships) and an intensive margin (how much of each). In their own measure the extensive margin is nota raw line count: following Feenstra (1994), each category is weighted by its importance in world trade. The figure below applies a simplified, count-based version of that distinction to one country’s export growth over time, so the levels are a proxy, not the Feenstra-weighted index. The two margins still respond to different levers: trade-cost reductions and discovery push the extensive margin (Melitz 2003), while productivity and demand push the intensive.
Figure 7
Margins of export growth, 2014-2024
Over 10 years, total exports grew at -3.2%/yr. Decomposition: HS6 line count moved from 143 to 281 (extensive margin 7.0%/yr); average value per line moved from $2.1M to $771K (intensive margin -9.5%/yr). The intensive margin dominates, which under the extensive/intensive logic indicates growth via deepening sales of existing lines (productivity, scale, or quality).
Method: simplified count-based margin decomposition. The extensive/intensive distinction is from Hummels & Klenow (2005) AER 95(3): 704-723, whose own extensive margin is Feenstra (1994) world-trade-weighted, not a line count. Here, extensive margin = CAGR of distinct HS6 export lines; intensive margin = CAGR of (total exports / line count); total CAGR ≈ extensive + intensive (log-linear approximation).
Export basket on the complexity frontier
Figure 8
Guinea-Bissau: export value vs. product complexity (PCI), 2024
Each dot is one HS6 product in Guinea-Bissau’s basket with more than US$1M in exports in 2024 (long-tail marginal exports below that floor are filtered out so the scatter is legible; the filter drops many HS6 codes for small economies and few for large ones). Horizontal = export value (log), vertical = Product Complexity Index (PCI). Dots upper-right are high-value, high-complexity products (machinery, precision instruments). Lower-left products carry less productive knowledge per dollar. A basket shifted toward the upper-right correlates with higher ECI and higher income.
Related
Value-chain position, domestic vs foreign value added in Guinea-Bissau’s exports, VAX ratio, and upstream/downstream index (OECD TiVA)
Economic Fitness, the non-linear Tacchella-Pietronero complexity ranking, and how it diverges from ECI
Research index, analytical pieces grounded in BACI flows and gravity covariates
Sector monitor, quarterly deep dives on 12 HS-defined sectors
In 2024, the top three HS sections account for 98% of merchandise exports that map to an HS92 section, a rough measure of sectoral concentration at the coarsest classification level. Shares here are over BACI exports that carry a valid HS92 section mapping, so the five-section series does not sum to 100% of total exports: some HS6 codes (newer HS revisions, non-standard codes) fall outside the 21-section mapping. Note that the top-5 sections are selected by 2024 share, so a section that was dominant in 1995 but has since fallen out of the top 5 will not appear on the chart.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28) crossed with HS92 section codes. Shares are over the HS6-mapped universe; HS6 codes without an HS92 section fall outside the 21-section totals.
Cell area is proportional to 2024 export value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of Guinea-Bissau’s exports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue (e.g. minerals, machinery, textiles). The largest chapter, HS 08 , Fruit and nuts, edible; peel of citrus fruit or melons, represents 93.5% of the top-30chapter total shown. Compared to Figure 2’s five-section trajectory, this view exposes which specific chapters within the dominant sections drive the overall composition.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), f.o.b. exports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.
Cell area is proportional to 2024 import value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of Guinea-Bissau’s imports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue. The largest import chapter, HS 27 , Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes, represents 16.0% of the top-30 chapter total shown. Read alongside Figure 2b to compare what Guinea-Bissau sells abroad against what it buys in.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), c.i.f. imports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.
Each country is shaded by the bilateral value of Guinea-Bissau’s exports to it in 2024, binned into quintiles. Guinea-Bissau itself is tinted in amber as the origin; white indicates destinations with no recorded bilateral flow. The map makes regional dependency structures visible, neighbours, former colonial ties, bloc partners, in ways a top-list ordering hides.
Partner concentration measures market exposure. The single largest destination absorbs 92% of Guinea-Bissau’s exports; the top 3 together take 96%. Concentrated partner bases make bilateral shocks (trade wars, recessions) first-order.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), bilateral exports 2024. Shares are over total exports.
Method: PCI = product loadings from the second-eigenvector complexity decomposition of the country-product RCA matrix (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014; framework from Hidalgo & Hausmann 2009, PNAS; eigenvector form equivalent to the method of reflections, Mealy et al. 2019). Basket restricted to HS6 exports > US$1M in the latest year.
Guinea-Bissau trade-riskGlobal risk rank #65 of 200 (board)
supplier concentration89.0%
price stress 12m15.5%
price coverage1.4%
Dependency diagnosis
Vaccines: for human medicine(300220): you import 87.7% from Unknown. MODERATE Moderate, world HHI 0.16; some concentration. Alternatives: BEL 28.6%, IRL 19.7%, USA 13.2%, FRA 8.4%.
Footwear: n.e.s. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics(640299): you import 98.2% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.32. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: VNM 17.8%, IDN 5.9%, DEU 4.0%, ITA 2.2%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks(851712): you import 95.4% from China. UNKNOWN World concentration unavailable for this product code.
Furnishing articles: of synthetic fibres, not knitted or crocheted (excluding bedspreads and articles of heading no. 9404)(630493): you import 99.9% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.41. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: TUR 5.6%, SLV 3.1%, IND 3.0%, VNM 2.8%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Plastics: household and toilet articles(392490): you import 62.0% from Senegal. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.36. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: CHN 59.6%, DEU 3.5%, USA 3.5%, POL 3.2%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Footwear: with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics, upper straps or thongs assembled to the sole by plugs(640220): you import 92.7% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.43. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: BRA 11.1%, VNM 3.4%, ESP 2.1%, NLD 1.6%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Ceramic flooring blocks, supports or filler tiles and the like (excluding building bricks)(690490): you import 99.3% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.48. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: DEU 5.9%, MOZ 3.5%, ITA 2.3%, ESP 2.2%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Data processing machines: portable, digital and automatic, weighing not more than 10kg, consisting of at least a central processing unit, a keyboard and a display(847130): you import 68.9% from Unknown. UNKNOWN World concentration unavailable for this product code.
Compound exposures
These flows carry multiple simultaneous stressors on the same product; the averaged risk score understates them.
Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified from Malaysia: single-source (81.4%) + price +15% over 12m.
GeoDep 2022, world shares latest BACI year, Pink Sheet 2026M04. No real-time signal is implied.
where Guinea-Bissau is exposed
Vaccines: for human medicine (300220): imports 88% from European Union (EU27). Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure.
Footwear: n.e.s. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (640299): imports 98% from China. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks (851712): imports 95% from China. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Furnishing articles: of synthetic fibres, not knitted or crocheted (excluding bedspreads and articles of heading no. 9404) (630493): imports 100% from China. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Plastics: household and toilet articles (392490): imports 62% from Senegal. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
where Guinea-Bissau could grow
Machines and appliances: for testing the hardness, strength, compressibility, elasticity or other mechanical properties of materials other than metals (902480): proximity 0.01 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.66, world market $1.3bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Navigational instruments and appliances: for navigation other than aeronautical or space navigation (excluding direction finding compasses) (901480): proximity 0.01 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +2.69, world market $2.5bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Toxins, cultures of micro-organisms (excluding yeasts) and similar products (300290): proximity 0.01 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.97, world market $295.5bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Machines: cutting, of all kinds, for making up paper pulp, paper or paperboard (844110): proximity 0.01 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.45, world market $1.7bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Instruments and apparatus: specially designed for telecommunications (eg cross-talk meters, gain measuring instruments, distortion factor meters, psophometers) (903040): proximity 0.01 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.07, world market $3.9bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →