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Supply-chain dependency is the defining anxiety of the 2020s, yet it is rarely measured. So we measured it. Of the 5,606 products traded across the world in 2024, a single country supplies more than half of all exports in 971 of them, more than 70 percent in 247, and more than 90 percent in 34. The world is not flat. In roughly one product line out of six, it leans on a single supplier.
For every HS6 product line traded in 2024, we computed the world export share of its single largest exporter. The distribution is striking. Most products are competitively supplied: the leading exporter holds under 30 percent of world exports in the majority of lines. But the right tail is long and heavy. 971 products sit above the 50 percent line, 247 above 70 percent, and a hard core of 34 products are effectively sole-sourced from one country, which supplies more than nine of every ten dollars exported worldwide.
Count of 2024 HS6 products by the world export share of their single largest exporter. 971 products exceed 50 percent; 34 exceed 90 percent.
A 70 percent world share only matters if the market is large enough to be worth controlling. Restricting to products with a world market above $100M leaves 163 serious chokepoints. One country holds most of them. China is the controlling exporter in 103 of these 163 lines, an order of magnitude more than any other country. The rest of the tail is revealing in a different way. It is not other manufacturing powers: it is countries that hold a chokepoint by endowment rather than by factory. Canada in softwood lumber and lobster, Indonesia in ferro-nickel and lignite, the United States in tree nuts and natural-gas liquids, Bangladesh in jute yarn, the Netherlands in flower bulbs. China's dominance was built; almost everyone else's was inherited from geography, climate or a single long-held craft.
Number of products (world market > $100M) where the country is the single largest exporter with at least a 70 percent world share, 2024. China holds 103.
Measuring this correctly matters more than it sounds. The standard academic trade panel uses the 1992 Harmonized System, the only vintage that spans three decades, but HS 1992 predates the products that dominate today's supply-chain anxiety. Lithium-ion batteries, solar modules and electric vehicles did not get their own codes until later HS revisions; under HS 1992 they are buried inside broad catch-all lines like “other accumulators.” This page is built on the current classification (HS 2022) precisely so those products appear as themselves. The payoff is direct: the single most strategically charged chokepoints are invisible in the legacy view.
Leading-exporter world share for products that exist only in recent HS revisions. China supplies the majority of lithium-ion batteries and solar modules; chip and EV leadership sits elsewhere (Taiwan, Germany). None of these is a distinct line in the HS 1992 panel.
Abstractions hide the point, so take one product. In 2024, China exported 91.7% of the world's artificial flowers, foliage and fruit of plastics (HS 670210), a $2.3B market. This is not entrepot trade: China imports almost none of the product, so the dominance is genuine production, not re-export. And it did not happen overnight. China already held 73.0% of this market in 1995 and has climbed steadily for three decades. The artificial flower is trivial; the pattern it illustrates, a quiet, durable, near-total capture of an everyday good, is not.
China's share of world exports of HS 670210, 1995 to 2024, rising from 73.0% to 91.7%.
Below is the full set: every 2024 product with a world market above $100M in which a single country supplies at least half of world exports. Search by product, HS6 code or country; raise the threshold to 90 percent to isolate the sole-sourced core; or pick a country to see exactly what it controls. Every figure on this page is computed live from the same primary source.
| HS6 | Product | Controlling country | World export share | World market ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170114 | Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter | Brazil | 73.1% | $22.0B |
| 910221 | Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with automatic winding | Switzerland | 79.1% | $17.6B |
| 720260 | Ferro-alloys: ferro-nickel | Indonesia | 83.9% | $16.4B |
| 852412 | Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), without drivers or control circuits | Korea, Rep. | 84.0% | $15.0B |
| 420212 | Cases and containers: trunks, suit-cases, vanity-cases, executive-cases, brief-cases, school satchels and similar containers, with outer surface of plastics or of textile materials | China | 70.7% | $11.5B |
| 260600 | Aluminium ores and concentrates | Guinea | 72.2% | $11.5B |
| 910121 | Wrist-watches: (not electrically operated), automatic winding, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, case of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal | Switzerland | 74.2% | $11.1B |
| 851679 | Electro-thermic appliances: n.e.c. in heading no. 8516, used for domestic purposes | China | 74.3% | $9.9B |
| 270210 | Lignite: whether or not pulverised, but not agglomerated, excluding jet | Indonesia | 84.5% | $9.7B |
| 732393 | Steel, stainless: table, kitchen and other household articles and parts thereof | China | 73.8% | $9.5B |
| 540752 | Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, dyed | China | 77.3% | $9.1B |
| 261000 | Chromium ores and concentrates | South Africa | 85.4% | $8.4B |
| 290110 | Acyclic hydrocarbons: saturated | United States | 74.2% | $8.2B |
| 841451 | Fans: table, floor, wall, window, ceiling or roof fans, with a self-contained electric motor of an output not exceeding 125W | China | 79.4% | $7.1B |
| 950510 | Christmas festivity articles | China | 83.8% | $6.8B |
| 853952 | Lamps: light-emitting diode (LED) light sources, light-emitting diode (LED) lamps | China | 81.8% | $6.2B |
| 240412 | Products containing nicotine, other than tobacco or reconstituted tobacco, intended for inhalation without combustion | China | 80.3% | $5.9B |
| 961700 | Vacuum flasks and other vacuum vessels, complete with cases: parts thereof other than glass inners | China | 85.5% | $5.7B |
| 440713 | Wood: coniferous species, of S-P-F (spruce (Picea spp.), pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.)), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, of a thickness exceeding 6mm | Canada | 87.6% | $5.1B |
| 851650 | Ovens: microwave, of a kind used for domestic purposes | China | 75.9% | $4.9B |
| 392640 | Plastics: statuettes and other ornamental articles | China | 81.4% | $4.4B |
| 070320 | Vegetables, alliaceous: garlic, fresh or chilled | China | 70.5% | $4.3B |
| 950590 | Festive, carnival or other entertainment articles including novelty jokes and conjuring tricks: other than Christmas festivity articles | China | 82.1% | $4.0B |
| 300339 | Medicaments: containing hormones (excluding insulin), (but not containing antibiotics), for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, not packaged for retail sale | Ireland | 70.9% | $4.0B |
| 230330 | Brewing or distilling dregs and waste: whether or not in the form of pellets | United States | 77.2% | $3.9B |
| 600192 | Fabrics: pile fabrics (excluding long pile and loop pile), of man-made fibres, knitted or crocheted | China | 89.2% | $3.8B |
| 283691 | Carbonates: lithium carbonate | Chile | 73.3% | $3.8B |
| 630140 | Blankets (other than electric blankets) and travelling rugs: of synthetic fibres | China | 85.3% | $3.6B |
| 851310 | Lamps: portable, electric, designed to function by their own source of energy (excluding lighting equipment of heading no. 8512) | China | 80.1% | $3.6B |
| 720293 | Ferro-alloys: ferro-niobium | Brazil | 75.0% | $3.4B |
| 940440 | Quilts, bedspreads, eiderdowns and duvets (comforters) | China | 73.7% | $3.4B |
| 080251 | Nuts, edible: pistachios, fresh or dried, in shell | United States | 71.7% | $3.4B |
| 282520 | Lithium oxide and hydroxide | China | 74.4% | $2.7B |
| 670210 | Flowers, foliage and fruit, artificial, and parts thereof: articles made of artificial flowers, foliage or fruit, of plastics | China | 90.5% | $2.5B |
| 860691 | Railway or tramway goods vans and wagons: covered and closed, not self-propelled | Mexico | 82.9% | $2.5B |
| 871500 | Baby carriages and parts thereof | China | 76.5% | $2.5B |
| 200210 | Vegetable preparations: tomatoes, whole or in pieces, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid | Italy | 73.0% | $2.4B |
| 292241 | Amino-acids, other than those containing more than one kind of oxygen function, and their esters: lysine and its esters: salts thereof | China | 72.7% | $2.4B |
| 540754 | Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, printed | China | 85.7% | $2.4B |
| 551511 | Fabrics, woven: of polyester staple fibres n.e.c. in chapter 55, mixed mainly or solely with viscose rayon staple fibres | China | 70.1% | $2.3B |
| 830629 | Statuettes and other ornaments: of base metal other than plated with precious metal | China | 73.2% | $2.3B |
| 510111 | Wool: (not carded or combed), greasy (including fleece-washed wool), shorn | Australia | 73.4% | $2.2B |
| 700992 | Glass mirrors: framed, excluding rear-view mirrors for vehicles | China | 71.7% | $2.2B |
| 710491 | Stones: diamonds, n.e.c. in heading 7104, worked or graded but not strung, mounted or set: ungraded synthetic or reconstructed precious or semi-precious stones, temporarily strung for convenience of transport | India | 72.5% | $2.0B |
| 841830 | Freezers: of the chest type, not exceeding 800l capacity | China | 77.0% | $2.0B |
| 940529 | Luminaires and light fittings: electric, table, desk, bedside or floor-standing, for other than use solely with light-emitting diode (LED) light sources | China | 71.1% | $1.9B |
| 670420 | Wigs, false beards, eyebrows and eyelashes, switches and the like and other articles n.e.c.: of human hair | China | 74.1% | $1.8B |
| 821599 | Cutlery: other than plated with precious metal | China | 74.0% | $1.8B |
| 521142 | Fabrics, woven: containing less than 85% by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with man-made fibres, weighing more than 200g/m2, of yarns of different colours, denim | China | 71.7% | $1.7B |
| 852499 | Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of other than liquid crystals or organic light-emitting diodes (OLED), with drivers or control circuits | China | 80.8% | $1.6B |
| 080211 | Nuts, edible: almonds, fresh or dried, in shell | United States | 77.1% | $1.6B |
| 490300 | Printed matter: children's picture, drawing or colouring books | China | 70.9% | $1.6B |
| 551614 | Fabrics, woven: printed, containing 85% or more by weight of artificial staple fibres | China | 88.8% | $1.5B |
| 670290 | Flowers, foliage and fruit, artificial, and parts thereof: articles made of artificial flowers, foliage or fruit, of materials other than plastics | China | 88.6% | $1.5B |
| 360410 | Pyrotechnic products: fireworks | China | 83.8% | $1.4B |
| 811100 | Manganese: articles thereof, including waste and scrap | China | 70.5% | $1.4B |
| 732119 | Cooking appliances and plate warmers: for solid fuel and fuels other than gas or liquid, of iron or steel | China | 79.3% | $1.4B |
| 030462 | Fish fillets: frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.) | Vietnam | 94.6% | $1.4B |
| 630222 | Bed linen: of man-made fibres, printed, not knitted or crocheted | China | 70.2% | $1.3B |
| 151530 | Vegetable oils: castor oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified | India | 89.7% | $1.3B |
| 060110 | Plants, live: bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots, corms, crowns and rhizomes, dormant | Netherlands | 80.5% | $1.2B |
| 660110 | Umbrellas and sun umbrellas: garden or similar umbrellas | China | 75.9% | $1.2B |
| 842310 | Weighing machines: personal (including baby scales) and household scales | China | 78.4% | $1.2B |
| 961511 | Combs, hair slides and the like: of hard rubber or plastics | China | 85.2% | $1.2B |
| 630293 | Toilet and kitchen linen: of man-made fibres | China | 81.5% | $1.1B |
| 230690 | Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of oils, n.e.c. in heading no. 2306 | Indonesia | 74.2% | $1.1B |
| 540246 | Yarn, synthetic: filament, monofilament (less than 67 decitex), of polyesters (not high tenacity or textured), partially oriented, single, untwisted or twisted 50 turns or less per metre, not for retail sale, not sewing thread | China | 71.2% | $1.1B |
| 290499 | Derivatives of hydrocarbons n.e.c. in heading no. 2904, whether or not halogenated | Kuwait | 75.4% | $1.1B |
| 540751 | Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, unbleached or bleached | China | 77.5% | $1.1B |
| 660191 | Umbrellas and sun umbrellas: having a telescopic shaft, (excluding garden or similar umbrellas) | China | 87.1% | $1.0B |
| 851672 | Electro-thermic appliances: toasters, of a kind used for domestic purposes | China | 85.1% | $1.0B |
| 551612 | Fabrics, woven: dyed, containing 85% or more by weight of artificial staple fibres | China | 80.7% | $1.0B |
| 030612 | Crustaceans: frozen, lobsters (Homarus spp.), in shell or not, smoked, cooked or not before or during smoking: in shell, cooked by steaming or by boiling in water | Canada | 83.3% | $1.0B |
| 530121 | Flax: broken or scutched, but not spun | France | 73.8% | $990M |
| 530929 | Fabrics, woven: of flax, containing less than 85% flax, other than unbleached or bleached | China | 70.6% | $973M |
| 621430 | Shawls, scarves, mufflers, mantillas, veils and the like: of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted) | China | 74.0% | $957M |
| 810411 | Magnesium: unwrought, containing at least 99.8% by weight of magnesium | China | 72.6% | $916M |
| 660199 | Umbrellas and sun umbrellas: n.e.c. in heading no. 6601 (including walking stick umbrellas) | China | 82.8% | $912M |
| 090931 | Spices: cumin seeds, neither crushed nor ground | India | 84.7% | $841M |
| 961519 | Combs, hair slides and the like: of other than hard rubber or plastics | China | 77.8% | $796M |
| 030367 | Fish: frozen, Alaska pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99 | Russia | 80.8% | $790M |
| 160417 | Fish preparations: eels, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not minced) | China | 96.8% | $778M |
| 060120 | Plants, live: bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots, corms, crowns and rhizomes, in growth or in flower, chicory plants and roots other than of heading no. 1212 | Netherlands | 72.6% | $767M |
| 691310 | Ceramic statuettes and other ornamental ceramic articles, of porcelain or china | China | 72.6% | $704M |
| 600634 | Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics, other than those of headings 60.01 to 60.04, of synthetic fibres, printed | China | 76.1% | $673M |
| 600642 | Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics, other than those of headings 60.01 to 60.04, of artificial fibres, dyed | China | 73.0% | $669M |
| 391211 | Cellulose acetates: non-plasticised, in primary forms | United States | 83.3% | $645M |
| 540331 | Yarn, artificial: filament, monofilament (less than 67 decitex), of viscose rayon (not high tenacity), single, untwisted or twisted 120 turns per metre or less, not for retail sale, not sewing thread | China | 81.8% | $634M |
| 170220 | Sugars: maple sugar, chemically pure, in solid form: maple syrup, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter | Canada | 84.0% | $622M |
| 180200 | Cocoa: shells, husks, skins and other cocoa waste | Cote d'Ivoire | 93.2% | $615M |
| 690490 | Ceramic flooring blocks, supports or filler tiles and the like (excluding building bricks) | China | 73.0% | $608M |
| 711039 | Metals: rhodium, semi-manufactured | South Africa | 93.9% | $601M |
| 293711 | Polypeptide hormones, protein hormones and glycoprotein hormones, their derivatives and structural analogues: somatotropin, its derivatives and structural analogues | Sweden | 80.0% | $599M |
| 852713 | Radio broadcast receivers capable of operating without an external power source: apparatus (other than pocket-size radio cassette-players), combined with sound recording or reproducing apparatus | China | 82.1% | $574M |
| 280200 | Sulphur: sublimed or precipitated, colloidal sulphur | Saudi Arabia | 73.0% | $574M |
| 442191 | Wood: of bamboo, articles n.e.c. in heading no. 4414 to 4420 (excluding clothes hangers) | China | 74.9% | $566M |
| 081310 | Fruit, edible: apricots, dried | Turkey | 74.1% | $559M |
| 450310 | Cork: corks and stoppers, of natural cork | Portugal | 80.0% | $536M |
| 961590 | Hairpins, curling pins, curling grips, hair curlers and the like (not those of heading no. 8516) and parts thereof | China | 76.5% | $530M |
| 294150 | Antibiotics: erythromycin and its derivatives: salts thereof | China | 71.4% | $526M |
| 600191 | Fabrics: pile fabrics (excluding long pile and loop pile), of cotton, knitted or crocheted | China | 80.1% | $515M |
| 911120 | Watch cases: of base metal, whether or not gold-plated or silver-plated | China | 73.6% | $501M |
| 961620 | Powder puffs and pads: for the application of cosmetics or toilet preparations | China | 72.7% | $481M |
| 910521 | Clocks: (excluding those with watch movements and instrument panel clocks), wall clocks, electrically operated | China | 74.7% | $467M |
| 551449 | Fabrics, woven: printed, containing less than 85% by weight of synthetic staple fibres (other than polyesters), mixed mainly or solely with cotton, exceeding 170g/m2 | China | 84.8% | $455M |
| 030323 | Fish: frozen, tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99 | China | 72.6% | $453M |
| 910690 | Time recording apparatus: with clock or watch movement or with synchronous motor, n.e.c. in heading no. 9106 | China | 77.4% | $441M |
| 160530 | Crustacean preparations: lobster, prepared or preserved | Canada | 93.0% | $432M |
| 630110 | Blankets: electric | China | 88.2% | $432M |
| 160553 | Mollusc preparations: mussels, prepared or preserved | Chile | 70.6% | $430M |
| 441919 | Tableware and kitchenware, of wood: of bamboo, n.e.c. in heading 4419 | China | 76.2% | $429M |
| 551692 | Fabrics, woven: dyed, of artificial staple fibres, n.e.c. in heading no. 5516 | China | 73.3% | $416M |
| 442110 | Wood: clothes hangers | China | 70.7% | $411M |
| 732391 | Cast iron: table, kitchen and other household articles and parts thereof, of cast iron, not enamelled | China | 72.9% | $400M |
| 071234 | Vegetables: shiitake mushrooms (Lentinus edodes), whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried | China | 95.3% | $398M |
| 720150 | Iron: alloy pig iron: spiegeleisen, in pigs, blocks or other primary forms | Indonesia | 72.1% | $378M |
| 160557 | Mollusc preparations: abalone, prepared or preserved | China | 73.0% | $360M |
| 810430 | Magnesium: raspings, turnings and granules, graded according to size, powders | China | 72.4% | $347M |
| 900669 | Photographic flashlight apparatus: n.e.c. in heading no. 9006 | Hong Kong SAR | 71.8% | $314M |
| 441912 | Tableware and kitchenware, of wood: of bamboo, chopsticks | China | 95.7% | $311M |
| 530710 | Yarn: of jute or of other textile bast fibres, single | Bangladesh | 96.0% | $311M |
| 853922 | Lamps: filament, (excluding ultra-violet or infra-red), of a power not exceeding 200W and for a voltage exceeding 100 volts, other than tungsten halogen | China | 75.3% | $305M |
| 580122 | Fabrics: woven pile, of cotton, cut corduroy, other than fabrics of heading no. 5802 or 5806 | China | 72.5% | $304M |
| 291462 | Quinones: coenzyme Q10 (ubidecarenone (INN)) | China | 75.1% | $300M |
| 910511 | Clocks: (excluding those with watch movements and instrument panel clocks), alarm clocks, electrically operated | China | 83.9% | $299M |
| 441850 | Wood: shingles and shakes | Canada | 82.2% | $291M |
| 441251 | Blockboard, laminboard and battenboard: with at least one outer layer of tropical wood | Indonesia | 75.3% | $289M |
| 540263 | Yarn, synthetic: filament, monofilament (less than 67 decitex), of polypropylene, other than high tenacity or textured yarn, multiple (folded) or cabled, not for retail sale, not sewing thread | Turkey | 85.7% | $284M |
| 282710 | Chlorides: of ammonium | China | 75.0% | $277M |
| 030324 | Fish: frozen, catfish (Pangasius spp., Silurus spp., Clarias spp., Ictalurus spp.), excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99 | Vietnam | 78.4% | $263M |
| 731581 | Chain: stud-link chain, of iron or steel | China | 78.0% | $261M |
| 701890 | Glass: articles thereof, statuettes and other ornaments of lamp worked glass, other than imitation jewellery | China | 71.2% | $258M |
| 821410 | Cutlery: paper knives, letter openers, erasing knives, pencil sharpeners and blades therefore | China | 76.1% | $258M |
| 821490 | Cutlery: hair clippers and mincing knives | China | 73.3% | $247M |
| 200591 | Vegetable preparations: bamboo shoots, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen | China | 76.3% | $245M |
| 030319 | Fish: frozen, salmonidae, n.e.c. in item no. 0303.1, excluding fillets, fish meat of 0304, and edible fish offal of subheadings 0303.91 to 0303.99 | Mauritania | 72.5% | $242M |
| 441911 | Tableware and kitchenware, of wood: of bamboo, bread boards, chopping boards and similar boards | China | 73.8% | $237M |
| 440714 | Wood: coniferous species, of Hem-fir (western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) and fir (Abies spp.)) | Canada | 87.9% | $235M |
| 071232 | Vegetables: wood ears (Auricularia spp), whole, cut, sliced, broken or in powder but not further prepared, dried | China | 95.1% | $230M |
| 830590 | Stationery: letter clips, letter corners, paper clips, indexing tags and similar office articles, including parts, of base metal | China | 75.0% | $225M |
| 940382 | Furniture: of bamboo | China | 84.7% | $223M |
| 050100 | Animal products: hair, human, unworked, whether or not washed or scoured, and waste of human hair | India | 85.7% | $221M |
| 580133 | Fabrics: woven pile, of man-made fibres, other weft pile fabrics, other than fabrics of heading no. 5802 or 5806 | China | 83.7% | $204M |
| 551421 | Fabrics, woven: plain weave, dyed, containing less than 85% by weight of polyester staple fibres, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, exceeding 170g/m2 | China | 74.7% | $197M |
| 844811 | Machinery, auxiliary: dobbies and jacquards, card reducing, copying, punching or assembling machines for use therewith | France | 75.1% | $189M |
| 190430 | Prepared foods obtained by the swelling or roasting of cereals or cereal products (e.g. corn flakes): cereals, not maize (corn), in grain form or in the form of flakes or other worked grains, from bulgur wheat | Turkey | 75.3% | $188M |
| 530310 | Jute and other textile bast fibres: raw or retted, but not spun, (excluding flax, hemp (cannabis sativa L.), and ramie) | Bangladesh | 73.8% | $180M |
| 840110 | Nuclear reactors | Russia | 95.4% | $171M |
| 530921 | Fabrics, woven: of flax, containing less than 85% flax, unbleached or bleached | China | 71.0% | $160M |
| 450110 | Cork: natural cork, raw or simply prepared | Spain | 76.7% | $148M |
| 253020 | Kieserite, epsomite (natural magnesium sulphates) | Germany | 76.1% | $147M |
| 852792 | Radio-broadcast receivers n.e.c. in heading no. 8527: not combined with sound recording or reproducing apparatus but combined with a clock | China | 73.3% | $147M |
| 660320 | Umbrella frames: including frames mounted on shafts (sticks) | China | 87.6% | $144M |
| 521143 | Fabrics, woven: containing less than 85% by weight of cotton, mixed mainly or solely with man-made fibres, weighing more than 200g/m2, of yarns of different colours, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill | China | 77.0% | $137M |
| 294140 | Antibiotics: chloramphenicol and its derivatives: salts thereof | China | 90.0% | $135M |
| 621520 | Ties, bow ties and cravats: of man-made fibres (not knitted or crocheted) | China | 81.1% | $131M |
| 290612 | Alcohols: cyclanic, cyclenic or cycloterpenic and derivatives, cyclohexanol, methylcyclohexanols and dimethylcyclohexanols | Japan | 75.1% | $129M |
| 520943 | Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, of yarns of different colours, 3-thread or 4-thread twill, including cross twill, weighing more than 200g/m2 | China | 72.6% | $124M |
| 530720 | Yarn: of jute or of other textile bast fibres, multiple (folded) or cabled | Bangladesh | 79.0% | $115M |
| 540781 | Fabrics, woven: of synthetic filament yarn, containing less than 85% by weight of synthetic filaments, mixed mainly or solely with cotton, bleached or unbleached | China | 71.7% | $111M |
| 440794 | Wood: cherry (Prunus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed, sanded or finger-jointed, thicker than 6mm | United States | 95.1% | $111M |
| 580132 | Fabrics: woven pile, of man-made fibres, cut corduroy, other than fabrics of heading no. 5802 or 5806 | China | 75.6% | $104M |
| 121293 | Sugar cane: fit for human consumption, fresh, chilled, frozen or dried, whether or not ground | Lao People's Dem. Rep. | 78.7% | $100M |
Source. CEPII BACI (release 202601), the cleaned and mirror-reconciled version of UN Comtrade, at HS6 product granularity, year 2024. The product universe uses the current Harmonized System classification (HS 2022) so that recently codified goods appear as distinct products; the artificial-flower time series uses the HS 1992 vintage, the only one spanning 1995 to 2024. Trade values are stored in thousands of US dollars and converted to dollars for display. We verified the unit empirically against known national totals: world goods exports for 2024 compute to $22.9 trillion, matching reality.
Method. For each HS6 product we summed export value by country, took the single largest exporter, and divided by the product's world export total. A “chokepoint” is a product where that leading share is at least 50 percent (or 70/90 percent at higher thresholds) and the world market exceeds $100 million, a floor that removes tiny niche lines where a single shipment can swing the share.
Why HS 2022, not the usual HS 1992. BACI is published in every HS vintage. Long-run studies use HS 1992 because it reaches back furthest, but for a single recent year it understates the product count and, worse, hides the most consequential chokepoints: lithium-ion batteries, solar modules and electric vehicles have no distinct HS 1992 code and are absorbed into broad parent lines. Using HS 2022 yields 5,606 traded products for 2024 versus 4,637 under HS 1992, and surfaces those modern lines directly.
Caveats. BACI reports gross trade, so a country that assembles and re-exports can look more dominant than its domestic value added implies; for the artificial-flower case we checked that China's imports are negligible, ruling out re-export. The latest BACI year is subject to revision. Single-exporter share measures concentration of supply, not of production capacity, which can be even more concentrated than trade flows reveal.
This is a snapshot of a live, reproducible pipeline. Related reading: hidden champions, mineral dependence, and the second China shock.
Each country shaded by the number of products (world market > $100M) in which it is the single largest exporter with at least a 50 percent world share, 2024.