Armington CES partial-equilibrium model. Simulate bilateral tariff policy changes and quantify effects on trade flows, prices, and welfare. The model holds consumption utility and producer prices fixed. Consumer compensation and tariff-revenue changes exclude domestic production and wider economic effects. Pick a preset scenario or build your own below.
Baseline bilateral panel: BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01). For years before 2002 or uncovered HS6 lines, the simulator labels and uses proportional fallback from `bilateral_year`; it never presents that fallback as observed HS96 bilateral trade.
Source: BACI International Trade Database (CEPII), HS96, 1996-2024 | Observed bilateral baseline panel: BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01)
Methodology: Armington (1969) CES partial-equilibrium model. Baseline bilateral flows use the observed BACI bilateral-product panel when available (2002-2024, BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01)); uncovered product-years fall back to labelled proportional allocation from bilateral_year. Substitution elasticities (sigma) at HS6 level from Soderbery (2018), Trade Elasticities, Heterogeneity, and Optimal Tariffs, Journal of International Economics 114; default sigma = 4.0 where no estimate exists. Consumer compensation uses the calibrated CES expenditure index (Thomas F. Rutherford, Getting Started with CGE Modeling). Net effect adds the change in tariff revenue. Producer surplus is zero under fixed producer prices and perfectly elastic supply; domestic production and economy-wide welfare are not estimated. Supplier losses and gains are matched proportionally within each importer, bounded by both budgets. This accounting attribution does not identify actual rerouting.