Armington CES partial-equilibrium model. Simulate bilateral tariff policy changes and quantify effects on trade flows, prices, and welfare. Welfare uses a first-order (Harberger) approximation, most reliable for moderate tariff changes. Pick a preset scenario or build your own below.
Baseline bilateral panel: BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01). For years before 2002 or uncovered HS6 lines, the simulator labels and uses proportional fallback from `bilateral_year`; it never presents that fallback as observed HS96 bilateral trade.
Source: BACI International Trade Database (CEPII), HS96, 1996-2024 | Observed bilateral baseline panel: BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01)
Methodology: Armington (1969) CES partial-equilibrium model. Baseline bilateral flows use the observed BACI bilateral-product panel when available (2002-2024, BACI 202601 (CEPII), bilateral product panel, HS02-HS22, 2002-2024 (retrieved 2026-06-01)); uncovered product-years fall back to labelled proportional allocation from bilateral_year. Substitution elasticities (sigma) at HS6 level from Soderbery (2018), Trade Elasticities, Heterogeneity, and Optimal Tariffs, Journal of International Economics 114; default sigma = 4.0 where no estimate exists. Welfare via first-order Harberger approximation (most reliable for moderate tariff changes). Trade diversion detected via bilateral flow comparison.