How does China, Macao SAR’s trade profile look? Level of exports and imports over thirty years, structural composition, partner concentration, and the position on the economic-complexity frontier.
exports 2024$1.9B
imports 2024$13.4B
balance-$11.6B
eci rank#145 / 226
products exported1,808
data vintageBACI 202501 (2024, ~12 mo lag)
Figure 1
China, Macao SAR: merchandise exports and imports, 1995-2024
Exports grew from $2.3B in 1995 to $1.9B in 2024, a CAGR of -0.7%. The merchandise balance sits at -$11.6B, which is -622% of exports , a simple scale normalisation over the available BACI series. Note that exports are f.o.b. and imports c.i.f., so a meaningful portion of the gap reflects freight and insurance baked into the import valuation rather than a real shortfall in receipts (CIF/FOB spreads typically run 5-10% per UNCTAD/IMF BOP methodology, but country-specific values vary). The more conventional open-economy metric is the current- account balance as % of GDP, reported on the /macro/MAC page.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), f.o.b. exports and c.i.f. imports, summed across all reporters.Figure 1b
The structural change in what a country exports, from agriculture to manufactures to services, or between HS sections, is one of the most studied transitions in development economics (Imbs & Wacziarg 2003; Hausmann, Hwang & Rodrik 2007). The chart below shows the five largest HS sections of China, Macao SAR’s exports in 2024, plotted back thirty years.
Figure 2
Top-5 HS sections of exports, 1995-2024
Figure 2b
Export basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $1.8B of $1.9B total
Figure 2c
Import basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $12.4B of $13.4B total
Who it sells to
Figure 3a
World map of export destinations, 2024
Figure 3b
Top 12 export destinations, 2024
Economic complexity
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), building on Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009, PNAS) and formalized as the eigenvalue (second-eigenvector) index in the Atlas of Economic Complexity, ranks countries by the productive knowledge embedded in their export basket. Countries that export many products, and whose products are also exported by few others, score high. ECI is predictive of subsequent income growth and structural transformation; see Hausmann et al. (2014, The Atlas of Economic Complexity, MIT Press) for the full methodology and the comparative country atlas. For a non-linear alternative that ranks fast-diversifying economies differently (China, for instance, sits far higher on fitness than on ECI), compare the Economic Fitness metric of Tacchella et al. (2012).
Figure 4a
China, Macao SAR: ECI trajectory, 1995-2024
Current ECI: -0.39, ranked #145 of 226 economies in 2024. ECI is zero-centered; positive values mean above-median complexity.
Method: ECI = second eigenvector of the reflections matrix on the BACI RCA≥1 matrix, z-standardized (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014). Framework: Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009) “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity,” PNAS 106(26): 10570-10575, whose method of reflections is equivalent to the eigenvector form (Mealy, Farmer & Teytelboym 2019, Science Advances).Figure 4b
Export concentration (HHI) and product count, 1995-2024
2024 HHI = 0.059, equivalent to about 17.0 equally-sized product lines.China, Macao SAR exports 1,808 distinct HS6 products. Rising HHI or falling effective-N indicates loss of diversification.
Revealed comparative advantage (Balassa 1965) says a country is specialised in a product when its share of that product’s world exports exceeds the country’s share of all world exports. A stronger version asks: which HS6 lines does the country lead the world in? The table below lists the ten largest export lines (by value) where China, Macao SAR ranks in the world top-5 in 2024, restricted to products with at least US$10M of global trade so tiny niches don’t crowd out economically meaningful positions. This is the “niche leadership” view: products the country is not just diversified in, but competitive at the frontier.
Figure 5
China, Macao SAR: top 10 HS6 lines with world top-5 rank, 2024
China, Macao SAR holds a top-5 world-export position in 1of its largest export lines (HS6 products with ≥ US$10M world trade, 2024). The leading niche is HS 294130 , Antibiotics: tetracyclines and their derivatives: salts ther , where it ranks #4 globally with 4.9% of world exports. Dominant niches are the revealed-comparative-advantage anchors a trade-shock or industrial- policy analysis should start from.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), HS6 exporter rankings, 2024. Restricted to products with ≥ US$10M world trade. Method: Balassa (1965) RCA taken to its rank-based extreme, top-5 world rank is a stringent specialisation test.
Peer countries by structural profile
Which economies share the closest structural profile to China, Macao SAR? Each country is placed in a three-dimensional space of economic complexity (ECI), log GDP per capita, and log total exports, each standardised to zero mean and unit variance in 2024. The five nearest neighbours by Euclidean distance in that space are China, Macao SAR’s closest structural peers, similar on productive-capability, income level, and scale of external trade. This is a trade-specific adaptation of the synthetic-control “donor pool” logic (Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller 2010).
Figure 6
China, Macao SAR: five closest structural peers, 2024
Closest structural peer: Greenland (ECI 0.07, GDP-pc $58,499, exports $1.6B). Bar length encodes peer proximity in the standardised (ECI, log GDP-pc, log exports) space, shorter bars are closer structural matches. This is the peer set to benchmark trade-policy outcomes against, rather than regional or income-group aggregates. The metric matches on capability frontier and scale, not on sector mix, so countries with similar export composition but different ECI (e.g. higher-complexity apparel exporters) will not appear here.
Margins of export growth
Hummels & Klenow (2005, “The variety and quality of a nation’s exports,” American Economic Review95(3): 704-723) introduced the split of a country’s exports into an extensive margin (the set of goods it ships) and an intensive margin (how much of each). In their own measure the extensive margin is nota raw line count: following Feenstra (1994), each category is weighted by its importance in world trade. The figure below applies a simplified, count-based version of that distinction to one country’s export growth over time, so the levels are a proxy, not the Feenstra-weighted index. The two margins still respond to different levers: trade-cost reductions and discovery push the extensive margin (Melitz 2003), while productivity and demand push the intensive.
Figure 7
Margins of export growth, 2014-2024
Over 10 years, total exports grew at 2.6%/yr. Decomposition: HS6 line count moved from 1,827 to 1,808 (extensive margin -0.1%/yr); average value per line moved from $787K to $1.0M (intensive margin 2.7%/yr). The intensive margin dominates, which under the extensive/intensive logic indicates growth via deepening sales of existing lines (productivity, scale, or quality).
Method: simplified count-based margin decomposition. The extensive/intensive distinction is from Hummels & Klenow (2005) AER 95(3): 704-723, whose own extensive margin is Feenstra (1994) world-trade-weighted, not a line count. Here, extensive margin = CAGR of distinct HS6 export lines; intensive margin = CAGR of (total exports / line count); total CAGR ≈ extensive + intensive (log-linear approximation).
Export basket on the complexity frontier
Figure 8
China, Macao SAR: export value vs. product complexity (PCI), 2024
Related
Value-chain position, domestic vs foreign value added in China, Macao SAR’s exports, VAX ratio, and upstream/downstream index (OECD TiVA)
Economic Fitness, the non-linear Tacchella-Pietronero complexity ranking, and how it diverges from ECI
Research index, analytical pieces grounded in BACI flows and gravity covariates
Sector monitor, quarterly deep dives on 12 HS-defined sectors
In 2024, the top three HS sections account for 54% of merchandise exports that map to an HS92 section, a rough measure of sectoral concentration at the coarsest classification level. Shares here are over BACI exports that carry a valid HS92 section mapping, so the five-section series does not sum to 100% of total exports: some HS6 codes (newer HS revisions, non-standard codes) fall outside the 21-section mapping. Note that the top-5 sections are selected by 2024 share, so a section that was dominant in 1995 but has since fallen out of the top 5 will not appear on the chart.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28) crossed with HS92 section codes. Shares are over the HS6-mapped universe; HS6 codes without an HS92 section fall outside the 21-section totals.
Cell area is proportional to 2024 export value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of China, Macao SAR’s exports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue (e.g. minerals, machinery, textiles). The largest chapter, HS 71 , Natural, cultured pearls; precious, semi-precious stones; precious metals, metals clad with precious metal, and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin, represents 25.3% of the top-30chapter total shown. Compared to Figure 2’s five-section trajectory, this view exposes which specific chapters within the dominant sections drive the overall composition.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), f.o.b. exports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.
Cell area is proportional to 2024 import value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of China, Macao SAR’s imports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue. The largest import chapter, HS 71 , Natural, cultured pearls; precious, semi-precious stones; precious metals, metals clad with precious metal, and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin, represents 11.7% of the top-30 chapter total shown. Read alongside Figure 2b to compare what China, Macao SAR sells abroad against what it buys in.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), c.i.f. imports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.
Each country is shaded by the bilateral value of China, Macao SAR’s exports to it in 2024, binned into quintiles. China, Macao SAR itself is tinted in amber as the origin; white indicates destinations with no recorded bilateral flow. The map makes regional dependency structures visible, neighbours, former colonial ties, bloc partners, in ways a top-list ordering hides.
Partner concentration measures market exposure. The single largest destination absorbs 75% of China, Macao SAR’s exports; the top 3 together take 84%. Concentrated partner bases make bilateral shocks (trade wars, recessions) first-order.
Source: CEPII BACI 202501 (retrieved 2026-04-28), bilateral exports 2024. Shares are over total exports.
Method: z-score each dimension (ECI, log GDP-pc, log total exports) across the universe of countries with all three observations in the latest year; rank by Euclidean distance. Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010) “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies,” JASA 105(490): 493-505.
Each dot is one HS6 product in China, Macao SAR’s basket with more than US$1M in exports in 2024 (long-tail marginal exports below that floor are filtered out so the scatter is legible; the filter drops many HS6 codes for small economies and few for large ones). Horizontal = export value (log), vertical = Product Complexity Index (PCI). Dots upper-right are high-value, high-complexity products (machinery, precision instruments). Lower-left products carry less productive knowledge per dollar. A basket shifted toward the upper-right correlates with higher ECI and higher income.
Method: PCI = product loadings from the second-eigenvector complexity decomposition of the country-product RCA matrix (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014; framework from Hidalgo & Hausmann 2009, PNAS; eigenvector form equivalent to the method of reflections, Mealy et al. 2019). Basket restricted to HS6 exports > US$1M in the latest year.
China, Macao SAR trade-riskGlobal risk rank #165 of 200 (board)
supplier concentration69.3%
price stress 12m18.6%
price coverage0.2%
Dependency diagnosis
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks(851712): you import 61.7% from China, Hong Kong SAR. UNKNOWN World concentration unavailable for this product code.
Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer surface of leather, of composition leather or of patent leather(420221): you import 81.2% from Unknown. MODERATE Moderate, world HHI 0.24; some concentration. Alternatives: ITA 35.7%, FRA 32.0%, CHN 6.1%, ESP 4.3%.
Spirits, liqueurs and other spirituous beverages: n.e.s. in heading no. 2208(220890): you import 54.2% from China. DIVERSIFIABLE Diversifiable, you are single-sourced but world supply is broad (HHI 0.14). Realistic alternatives: MEX 33.7%, FRA 8.1%, ITA 7.7%, DEU 4.9%. Policy: spread procurement across these suppliers.
Vaccines: for human medicine(300220): you import 55.3% from China, Hong Kong SAR. MODERATE Moderate, world HHI 0.16; some concentration. Alternatives: BEL 28.6%, IRL 19.7%, USA 13.2%, FRA 8.4%.
Animal products: edible, n.e.s. in this or other chapters(041000): you import 84.0% from China, Hong Kong SAR. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.45. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: IDN 63.1%, MYS 22.2%, CHN 3.5%, VNM 1.1%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Data processing machines: portable, digital and automatic, weighing not more than 10kg, consisting of at least a central processing unit, a keyboard and a display(847130): you import 85.5% from China. UNKNOWN World concentration unavailable for this product code.
Textiles: made up articles (including dress patterns), n.e.s. in chapter 63, n.e.s. in heading no. 6307(630790): you import 81.0% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.31. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: MEX 4.6%, DEU 4.5%, VNM 4.3%, USA 3.4%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Clothing accessories: knitted or crocheted, n.e.s. in heading no. 6117(611780): you import 92.0% from Unknown. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.39. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: CHN 62.0%, VNM 3.0%, ESP 2.7%, ITA 2.5%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Compound exposures
These flows carry multiple simultaneous stressors on the same product; the averaged risk score understates them.
Meat: of sheep (including lamb), cuts with bone in (excluding carcasses and half-carcasses), frozen from China, Hong Kong SAR: single-source (63.3%) + price +21% over 12m.
GeoDep 2022, world shares latest BACI year, Pink Sheet 2026M04. No real-time signal is implied.
where China, Macao SAR is exposed
Telephones for cellular networks or for other wireless networks (851712): imports 62% from Hong Kong SAR. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer surface of leather, of composition leather or of patent leather (420221): imports 81% from European Union (EU27). Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure.
Spirits, liqueurs and other spirituous beverages: n.e.s. in heading no. 2208 (220890): imports 54% from China. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Vaccines: for human medicine (300220): imports 55% from Hong Kong SAR. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Animal products: edible, n.e.s. in this or other chapters (041000): imports 84% from Hong Kong SAR. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
where China, Macao SAR could grow
Watch movements: complete and assembled, battery or accumulator powered, with mechanical display only or with a device to which a mechanical display can be incorporated (910811): proximity 0.07 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.75, world market $518.4m. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Optical elements: polarising material, sheets and plates thereof (900120): proximity 0.04 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +6.68, world market $4.5bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Rubber: synthetic, acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber (NBR), latex, in primary forms or in plates, sheets or strip (400251): proximity 0.06 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +4.52, world market $1.0bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Watch cases: n.e.s. in heading no. 9111 (911180): proximity 0.06 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +4.46, world market $112.0m. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Watch cases: of precious metal or of metal clad with precious metal (911110): proximity 0.07 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +3.53, world market $48.0m. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →