How does Seychelles’s trade profile look? Level of exports and imports over thirty years, structural composition, partner concentration, and the position on the economic-complexity frontier.
Seychelles: merchandise exports and imports, 1996-2024
Exports grew from $42.8M in 1996 to $899.9M in 2024, a CAGR of 11.5%. The merchandise balance sits at -$791.6M, which is -88% of exports , a simple scale normalisation over the available BACI series. Note that exports are f.o.b. and imports c.i.f., so a meaningful portion of the gap reflects freight and insurance baked into the import valuation rather than a real shortfall in receipts (CIF/FOB spreads typically run 5-10% per UNCTAD/IMF BOP methodology, but country-specific values vary). The more conventional open-economy metric is the current- account balance as % of GDP, reported on the /macro/SYC page.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), f.o.b. exports and c.i.f. imports, summed across all reporters.Query
SELECT year, total_exports*1000 AS exports_usd, total_imports*1000 AS imports_usd, trade_balance*1000 AS balance_usd
FROM 'data/parquet/country_year_totals.parquet'
WHERE country_code = 690 ORDER BY year;
The structural change in what a country exports, from agriculture to manufactures to services, or between HS sections, is one of the most studied transitions in development economics (Imbs & Wacziarg 2003; Hausmann, Hwang & Rodrik 2007). The chart below shows the five largest HS sections of Seychelles’s exports in 2024, plotted back thirty years.
Figure 2
Top-5 HS sections of exports, 1996-2024
Figure 2b
Export basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $896.9M of $899.9M total
Figure 2c
Import basket by HS chapter, 2024 · top-30 $1.5B of $1.7B total
Who it sells to
Figure 3a
World map of export destinations, 2024
Figure 3b
Top 12 export destinations, 2024
What moved exports between years
The line charts above show levels over time; they do not answer the analyst’s next question: when exports changed between 2023 and 2024, which partners and which products accounted for how much of it? The two bridge charts below answer that directly. Contributors are ordered by absolute dollar change, largest first, and every line outside the top 8 is collapsed into one residual bar so the columns still sum exactly to the total move.
Partners
Figure 3c. Export change by partner, 2023-2024
Exports moved from $764.6M to $899.9M (+$135.2M).
Year totalsIncrease on continuing linesEntry from zeroExit to zero / declineAll other residual
Tables used: bilateral_year + countries.parquet. Contributors are ordered by absolute dollar change, largest first; the residual bar is appended last. After the top 8 named contributors, every remaining line is collapsed into one exact arithmetic residual bar so the bridge reconciles to the total change. Entry bars are partners that rose from zero; exit bars fell to zero, so no growth rate is printed for them.Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), bilateral_year export flows for 2023 and 2024, values scaled from thousands USD to USD.
Products
Figure 3d. Export change by product, 2023-2024
Exports moved from $764.6M to $899.9M (+$135.2M).
Year totalsIncrease on continuing linesEntry from zeroExit to zero / declineAll other residual
Tables used: country_year_product + products.parquet. Contributors are ordered by absolute dollar change, largest first; the residual bar is appended last. After the top 8 named contributors, every remaining line is collapsed into one exact arithmetic residual bar so the bridge reconciles to the total change. Entry bars are HS6 lines that were zero in 2023; exit bars fell to zero in 2024.Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), country_year_product export flows for 2023 and 2024, values scaled from thousands USD to USD.
Economic complexity
The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), building on Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009, PNAS) and formalized as the eigenvalue (second-eigenvector) index in the Atlas of Economic Complexity, ranks countries by the productive knowledge embedded in their export basket. Countries that export many products, and whose products are also exported by few others, score high. ECI is predictive of subsequent income growth and structural transformation; see Hausmann et al. (2014, The Atlas of Economic Complexity, MIT Press) for the full methodology and the comparative country atlas. For a non-linear alternative that ranks fast-diversifying economies differently (China, for instance, sits far higher on fitness than on ECI), compare the Economic Fitness metric of Tacchella et al. (2012).
Figure 4a
Seychelles: ECI trajectory, 1996-2024
Current ECI: -0.01, ranked #119 of 226 economies in 2024. ECI is zero-centered; positive values mean above-median complexity.
Method: ECI = second eigenvector of the reflections matrix on the BACI RCA≥1 matrix, z-standardized (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014). Framework: Hidalgo & Hausmann (2009) “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity,” PNAS 106(26): 10570-10575, whose method of reflections is equivalent to the eigenvector form (Mealy, Farmer & Teytelboym 2019, Science Advances).Figure 4b
Export concentration (HHI) and product count, 1996-2024
2024 HHI = 0.162, equivalent to about 6.2 equally-sized product lines.Seychelles exports 1,125 distinct HS6 products. Rising HHI or falling effective-N indicates loss of diversification.
Revealed comparative advantage (Balassa 1965) says a country is specialised in a product when its share of that product’s world exports exceeds the country’s share of all world exports. A stronger version asks: which HS6 lines does the country lead the world in? The table below lists the ten largest export lines (by value) where Seychelles ranks in the world top-5 in 2024, restricted to products with at least US$10M of global trade so tiny niches don’t crowd out economically meaningful positions. This is the “niche leadership” view: products the country is not just diversified in, but competitive at the frontier.
Figure 5
Seychelles: top 10 HS6 lines with world top-5 rank, 2024
Seychelles holds a top-5 world-export position in 1of its largest export lines (HS6 products with ≥ US$10M world trade, 2024). The leading niche is HS 030342 , Fish: yellowfin tunas (thunnus albacares), frozen (excluding , where it ranks #3 globally with 7.3% of world exports. Dominant niches are the revealed-comparative-advantage anchors a trade-shock or industrial- policy analysis should start from.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), HS6 exporter rankings, 2024. Restricted to products with ≥ US$10M world trade. Method: Balassa (1965) RCA taken to its rank-based extreme, top-5 world rank is a stringent specialisation test.Query
WITH prod_year AS (
SELECT product_code, country_code, SUM(export_value) AS v
FROM 'data/parquet/country_year_product/year=2024/*.parquet'
WHERE export_value > 0 GROUP BY product_code, country_code
), ranked AS (
SELECT product_code, country_code, v,
RANK() OVER (PARTITION BY product_code ORDER BY v DESC) AS world_rank
FROM prod_year
WHERE product_code IN (SELECT product_code FROM prod_year GROUP BY product_code HAVING SUM(v)*1000 >= 1e7)
)
SELECT product_code, v*1000 AS value_usd, world_rank
FROM ranked WHERE country_code = 690 AND world_rank <= 5
ORDER BY v DESC LIMIT 10;
Peer countries by structural profile
Which economies share the closest structural profile to Seychelles? Each country is placed in a three-dimensional space of economic complexity (ECI), log GDP per capita, and log total exports, each standardised to zero mean and unit variance in 2024. The five nearest neighbours by Euclidean distance in that space are Seychelles’s closest structural peers, similar on productive-capability, income level, and scale of external trade. This is a trade-specific adaptation of the synthetic-control “donor pool” logic (Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller 2010).
Figure 6
Seychelles: five closest structural peers, 2024
Closest structural peer: New Caledonia (ECI -0.27, GDP-pc $29,213, exports $1.4B). Bar length encodes peer proximity in the standardised (ECI, log GDP-pc, log exports) space, shorter bars are closer structural matches. This is the peer set to benchmark trade-policy outcomes against, rather than regional or income-group aggregates. The metric matches on capability frontier and scale, not on sector mix, so countries with similar export composition but different ECI (e.g. higher-complexity apparel exporters) will not appear here.
Margins of export growth
Hummels & Klenow (2005, “The variety and quality of a nation’s exports,” American Economic Review95(3): 704-723) introduced the split of a country’s exports into an extensive margin (the set of goods it ships) and an intensive margin (how much of each). In their own measure the extensive margin is nota raw line count: following Feenstra (1994), each category is weighted by its importance in world trade. The figure below applies a simplified, count-based version of that distinction to one country’s export growth over time, so the levels are a proxy, not the Feenstra-weighted index. The two margins still respond to different levers: trade-cost reductions and discovery push the extensive margin (Melitz 2003), while productivity and demand push the intensive.
Figure 7
Margins of export growth, 2014-2024
Over 10 years, total exports grew at 3.8%/yr. Decomposition: HS6 line count moved from 1,208 to 1,125 (extensive margin -0.7%/yr); average value per line moved from $514K to $800K (intensive margin 4.5%/yr). The intensive margin dominates, which under the extensive/intensive logic indicates growth via deepening sales of existing lines (productivity, scale, or quality).
Method: simplified count-based margin decomposition. The extensive/intensive distinction is from Hummels & Klenow (2005) AER 95(3): 704-723, whose own extensive margin is Feenstra (1994) world-trade-weighted, not a line count. Here, extensive margin = CAGR of distinct HS6 export lines; intensive margin = CAGR of (total exports / line count); total CAGR ≈ extensive + intensive (log-linear approximation).Query
Export basket on the complexity frontier
Figure 8
Seychelles: export value vs. product complexity (PCI), 2024
Related
Value-chain position, domestic vs foreign value added in Seychelles’s exports, VAX ratio, and upstream/downstream index (OECD TiVA)
Economic Fitness, the non-linear Tacchella-Pietronero complexity ranking, and how it diverges from ECI
Research index, analytical pieces grounded in BACI flows and gravity covariates
Sector monitor, quarterly deep dives on 12 HS-defined sectors
In 2024, the top three HS sections account for 86% of merchandise exports that map to a HS96 section, a rough measure of sectoral concentration at the coarsest classification level. Shares here are over BACI exports that carry a valid HS96 section mapping, so the five-section series does not sum to 100% of total exports: some HS6 codes (newer HS revisions, non-standard codes) fall outside the 21-section mapping. Note that the top-5 sections are selected by 2024 share, so a section that was dominant in 1996 but has since fallen out of the top 5 will not appear on the chart.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01) crossed with HS96 section codes. Shares are over the HS6-mapped universe; HS6 codes without an HS92 section fall outside the 21-section totals.
Cell area is proportional to 2024 export value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of Seychelles’s exports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue (e.g. minerals, machinery, textiles). The largest chapter, HS 03 , Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates, represents 32.4% of the top-30chapter total shown. Compared to Figure 2’s five-section trajectory, this view exposes which specific chapters within the dominant sections drive the overall composition.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), f.o.b. exports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.Query
SELECT SUBSTRING(product_code, 1, 2) AS chapter_code,
ANY_VALUE(p.chapter) AS chapter_name,
p.section,
SUM(cyp.export_value) * 1000 AS value_usd
FROM 'data/parquet/country_year_product/year=2024/*.parquet' cyp
JOIN 'data/parquet/products.parquet' p ON p.code = cyp.product_code
WHERE cyp.country_code = 690 AND cyp.export_value > 0 AND p.section IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY chapter_code, p.section
ORDER BY value_usd DESC LIMIT 30;
Cell area is proportional to 2024 import value. The treemap shows the top 30 HS chapters (HS2 level) of Seychelles’s imports; cells are colour-coded by HS section so structurally related chapters share a hue. The largest import chapter, HS 27 , Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes, represents 20.5% of the top-30 chapter total shown. Read alongside Figure 2b to compare what Seychelles sells abroad against what it buys in.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), c.i.f. imports of HS6 codes aggregated to HS2 chapters, 2024. Restricted to top 30 chapters by value.Query
SELECT SUBSTRING(product_code, 1, 2) AS chapter_code,
ANY_VALUE(p.chapter) AS chapter_name,
p.section,
SUM(cyp.import_value) * 1000 AS value_usd
FROM 'data/parquet/country_year_product/year=2024/*.parquet' cyp
JOIN 'data/parquet/products.parquet' p ON p.code = cyp.product_code
WHERE cyp.country_code = 690 AND cyp.import_value > 0 AND p.section IS NOT NULL
GROUP BY chapter_code, p.section
ORDER BY value_usd DESC LIMIT 30;
Each country is shaded by the bilateral value of Seychelles’s exports to it in 2024, binned into quintiles. Seychelles itself is tinted in amber as the origin; white indicates destinations with no recorded bilateral flow. The map makes regional dependency structures visible, neighbours, former colonial ties, bloc partners, in ways a top-list ordering hides.
Partner concentration measures market exposure. The single largest destination absorbs 31% of Seychelles’s exports; the top 3 together take 48%. Concentrated partner bases make bilateral shocks (trade wars, recessions) first-order.
Source: CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01), bilateral exports 2024. Shares are over total exports.
Method: z-score each dimension (ECI, log GDP-pc, log total exports) across the universe of countries with all three observations in the latest year; rank by Euclidean distance. Abadie, Diamond & Hainmueller (2010) “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies,” JASA 105(490): 493-505.
SELECT h.year, h.num_products, t.total_exports*1000 AS exports_usd
FROM 'data/parquet/country_hhi.parquet' h
JOIN 'data/parquet/country_year_totals.parquet' t USING(country_code, year)
WHERE h.country_code = 690 AND h.year IN (2014, 2024);
Each dot is one HS6 product in Seychelles’s basket with more than US$1M in exports in 2024 (long-tail marginal exports below that floor are filtered out so the scatter is legible; the filter drops many HS6 codes for small economies and few for large ones). Horizontal = export value (log), vertical = Product Complexity Index (PCI). Dots upper-right are high-value, high-complexity products (machinery, precision instruments). Lower-left products carry less productive knowledge per dollar. A basket shifted toward the upper-right correlates with higher ECI and higher income.
Method: PCI = product loadings from the second-eigenvector complexity decomposition of the country-product RCA matrix (eigenvalue method of the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Hausmann et al. 2014; framework from Hidalgo & Hausmann 2009, PNAS; eigenvector form equivalent to the method of reflections, Mealy et al. 2019). Basket restricted to HS6 exports > US$1M in the latest year.
where Seychelles is exposed
Containers: (including containers for transport of fluids) specially designed and equipped for carriage by one or more modes of transport (860900): imports 98% from China. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Cruise ships, excursion boats and similar vessels, principally designed for the transport of persons, ferry boats of all kinds (890110): imports 99% from United Arab Emirates. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Vegetable oils: olive oil and its fractions, other than virgin, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (150990): imports 94% from Tunisia. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
Wine: sparkling (220410): imports 82% from European Union (EU27). Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure.
Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with automatic winding (910221): imports 99% from Switzerland. Ranked by import dependency (GeoDep 2022). Single-supplier concentration is the exposure. Model a supply shock →
where Seychelles could grow
Quartzite: cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular (including square) shape, (excluding crude or roughly trimmed) (250629): proximity 0.09 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +0.93, world market $603. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Heterocyclic compounds: with oxygen hetero-atom(s) only, (other than lactones or compounds containing an unfused furan ring (whether or not hydrogenated) in the structure), safrole (293294): proximity 0.03 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +1.31, world market $274,514. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing and prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on a backing, other than those of heading no. 3002 or 3006 (382200): proximity 0.02 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +1.41, world market $45.8bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Sulphonamides (293500): proximity 0.02 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +1.50, world market $8.3bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Heterocyclic compounds: n.e.s. in heading no. 2933 (293390): proximity 0.02 to current capabilities, complexity PCI +1.23, world market $29.2bn. Ranked by density × complexity (product space 2024). See product →
Seychelles trade-riskGlobal risk rank #75 of 200 (board)
supplier concentration93.8%
price stress 12m15.5%
price coverage0.5%
Dependency diagnosis
Containers: (including containers for transport of fluids) specially designed and equipped for carriage by one or more modes of transport(860900): you import 97.9% from China. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.28. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: USA 6.7%, DEU 4.2%, POL 3.8%, NLD 3.1%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Cruise ships, excursion boats and similar vessels, principally designed for the transport of persons, ferry boats of all kinds(890110): you import 99.1% from United Arab Emirates. MODERATE Moderate, world HHI 0.15; some concentration. Alternatives: ITA 30.9%, DEU 15.2%, FIN 10.8%, FRA 8.7%.
Vegetable oils: olive oil and its fractions, other than virgin, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified(150990): you import 93.8% from Tunisia. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.34. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: ESP 54.1%, ITA 15.8%, PRT 11.1%, TUR 6.6%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Wine: sparkling(220410): you import 81.6% from Unknown. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.38. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: FRA 53.4%, ITA 29.2%, ESP 6.5%, SGP 3.2%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with automatic winding(910221): you import 99.2% from Switzerland. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.71. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: FRA 2.1%, CHN 1.8%, DEU 1.5%, JPN 1.4%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Crustaceans: lobsters (homarus spp.), frozen (whether in shell or not, whether or not cooked by steaming or by boiling in water)(030612): you import 72.0% from United Arab Emirates. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.71. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: CAN 83.9%, USA 3.6%, EGY 2.3%, FRA 2.0%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Vegetable preparations: tomatoes, whole or in pieces, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid(200210): you import 72.4% from Unknown. STRUCTURAL Structural scarcity, world export HHI 0.53. Switching suppliers will not fix this; the world itself is concentrated (top alternatives: ITA 72.0%, ESP 5.6%, USA 3.5%, TUR 3.3%). Policy: stockpile, substitute the input, or invest in allied/domestic production.
Dairy produce: fats and oils derived from milk (other than butter or dairy spreads)(040590): you import 72.2% from India. MODERATE Moderate, world HHI 0.20; some concentration. Alternatives: NZL 39.1%, NLD 16.1%, BEL 8.6%, DEU 6.5%.
Compound exposures
These flows carry multiple simultaneous stressors on the same product; the averaged risk score understates them.
Vegetable oils: palm oil and its fractions, other than crude, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified from Malaysia: single-source (79.9%) + price +15% over 12m.
GeoDep 2022, world shares latest BACI year, Pink Sheet 2026M04. No real-time signal is implied.