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The alternative suppliers most likely to capture displaced trade when an incumbent supplier is removed, and the effective number of viable alternatives for a dependency.
Surface: /mercator/methodology
CEPII BACI 202601 (retrieved 2026-06-01)
Mercator identifies historical supplier-displacement episodes in which an incumbent's product-market import share collapses while total demand holds, then estimates which alternative supplier captures the displaced share.
The estimator is a McFadden conditional logit with standardized features for world-export capacity, prior supplier share, distance, relationship headroom, governance, FTA access and revealed comparative advantage. The methodology page describes training on 2015-2020 episodes.
The model is then applied to current single-source dependencies. Its Substitutability Index is described as the effective number of viable alternative suppliers after the incumbent is removed.
Coefficients, standard errors, the training episode count, convergence fields and all backtest values are read at request time from the committed data/mercator/coefficients.json and data/mercator/backtest_metrics.json artifacts. They are deliberately not duplicated as static registry numbers.
No explicit equation is documented in the named repository sources.| Path | Method | Returns | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| /api/mercator/model | GET | The committed coefficient and backtest artifacts, including coefficients, standard errors, training episode and convergence fields, and model, incumbency and capacity backtest metrics. | /api/mercator/model |